Wall Street closes at a record for the first time since end of January
Investing.com -- Irish bank ratings were revised by Barclays, which upgraded Bank of Ireland to “overweight” from “equal weight,” maintained AIB Group PLC at “equal weight,” and raised Permanent TSB Group Holdings Plc to “equal weight” from “underweight,” citing earnings, valuation and capital return metrics.
Barclays said Irish banks are “Resilient with upside,” pointing to rate sensitivity, credit quality and capital generation.
It set a price target of €19.50 for Bank of Ireland, €10.50 for AIB Group Plc and €2.97 for Permanent TSB Group Holdings Plc.
For Bank of Ireland, Barclays expects net interest income to rise to €3.52 billion in 2026, €3.81 billion in 2027 and €4.12 billion in 2028, compared with €3.37 billion in 2025.
Statutory profit before tax is projected at €1.80 billion in 2026, €2.11 billion in 2027 and €2.47 billion in 2028.
Return on tangible equity is seen at 17.4% in 2026, 19.9% in 2027 and 22.8% in 2028. The brokerage’s CET1 ratio is forecast at 14.6% in 2026 and 14.5% through 2027-2028.
AIB Group PLC is expected to report net interest income of €3.83 billion in 2026, €4.02 billion in 2027 and €4.19 billion in 2028. Statutory profit before tax is forecast at €2.25 billion in 2026, €2.41 billion in 2027 and €2.55 billion in 2028.
Return on tangible equity is projected at 23.3% in 2026, rising to 24.5% by 2028. CET1 is seen at 15.4% in 2026, declining to 14.1% in 2028.
Permanent TSB Group Holdings projections show net interest income at €0.65 billion in 2026, €0.71 billion in 2027 and €0.77 billion in 2028.
Statutory profit before tax is estimated at €0.19 billion in 2026, €0.21 billion in 2027 and €0.27 billion in 2028. CET1 is forecast at 18.1% in 2026 and 17.8% in 2028. Net interest margin is seen rising from 2.19% in 2026 to 2.40% in 2028.
Barclays estimates Bank of Ireland trades at about 7.5x 2028 earnings versus about 9x for AIB Group PLC and about 7x for Permanent TSB Group Holdings. It said earnings forecasts are about 5-10% ahead of consensus for Bank of Ireland over 2026-2028, supported by rates.
Across the sector, Barclays forecasts net interest income expansion through 2028, with Bank of Ireland at €4.12 billion, AIB Group PLC at €4.19 billion and Permanent TSB Group Holdings at €0.77 billion. Net interest margins are projected at 2.92% for Bank of Ireland, 2.72% for AIB Group PLC and 2.40% for Permanent TSB Group Holdings by 2028.
The brokerage said both AIB Group and Bank of Ireland are set to deliver “sustained double-digit cash return yields,” supported by capital generation, while maintaining that credit risks remain low and earnings sensitivity to rates could produce more than 10% EPS uplift under higher rate scenarios.