Wall Street closes at a record for the first time since end of January
Charles Schwab Corp. reports first-quarter results Thursday morning with investors seeking reassurance that the brokerage giant can sustain its growth momentum despite headwinds around client asset flows and competitive pressures.
The financial services firm is expected to post earnings of $1.39 per share on revenue of $6.47 billion when it releases results before the market opens on April 16, according to analyst estimates. That would represent a 40% jump in earnings and 16% revenue growth compared with the same quarter last year, though earnings would match the $1.39 per share Schwab delivered in the fourth quarter. Revenue is forecast to rise roughly 2% sequentially from the $6.34 billion reported in January.
Analysts have grown slightly more optimistic heading into the print. EPS estimates have risen 2.93% over the past 60 days, while revenue estimates have edged up 1.41% over the past two months. The $171 billion company trades at $98.38, below the analyst consensus price target of $116.85, which implies 19% upside. Of the 22 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it a Buy, two have Hold ratings, and one recommends selling.
What Investors Are Watching
The critical question for Schwab is whether it can maintain robust net new asset growth after a sluggish start to the year. Analyst commentary has highlighted concerns about a slowdown in January and February, though observers note that account growth remains healthy and trading activity surged in March. Raymond James analyst Patrick O’Shaughnessy raised his price target to $128, noting that "retail investors remain very engaged with the markets" but expressing caution about near-term asset flows.
Net interest margin will also draw scrutiny. Analysts expect Schwab to report continued improvement in its net interest margin as the firm reinvests maturing securities at higher yields and benefits from elevated margin loan balances. Truist Securities projected that margin balances grew nearly 4% month-over-month in March, a tailwind for interest income that helps offset pressure on other revenue lines.
Investors will listen closely for management’s comments on artificial intelligence and competitive threats. Recent analyst meetings have addressed fears that AI could disrupt Schwab’s wealth management business, but CFO Mike Verdeschi has argued the company should be an AI beneficiary given its scale and comprehensive product set. Wolfe Research expects Schwab to see "compelling risk-reward" with shares trading at just 13 times estimated 2027 earnings.
When Schwab reported fourth-quarter results in January, it met analyst expectations on both earnings and revenue. The company has been rebuilding its balance sheet following liquidity pressures in 2023 and 2024, retiring expensive debt and expanding its sweep cash balances. Schwab completed its acquisition of private-markets platform Forge Global in early March, expanding access to alternative investments—a move analysts view as part of the firm’s strategy to diversify revenue beyond traditional brokerage commissions.
The results will test whether Schwab’s multiple revenue streams—spanning trading, asset management, advisory services, and banking—can weather a more challenging operating environment and position the company for what analysts describe as "a credible path to >20% EPS CAGR through 2027."
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